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News

Overall System Adequacy

ENTSO-E’s assessment for the upcoming winter indicates a generally favourable adequacy situation across Europe, with supply expected to meet demand in most regions. This resilience is supported by a combination of factors, including a continued increase in wind and solar generation capacity and hydropower reservoir levels that are notably higher than in previous years. Furthermore, the system benefits from demand patterns and planned generation outages that remain comparable to last winter, providing a robust buffer against potential fluctuations in renewable output or cold spells.

Regional Adequacy Risks

While the continental grid remains resilient, localised vulnerabilities exist in specific areas. Non-interconnected systems like Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta face potential adequacy concerns; however, Ireland and Malta can mitigate these supply risks by deploying dedicated non-market resources. In the Nordic-Baltic region, countries such as Finland, Estonia, and Lithuania may encounter risks only under extreme conditions, such as prolonged cold weather combined with high unplanned outages. Conversely, Continental Europe expects no significant supply shortages, benefiting from strong interconnections and coordinated planning.

Generation and Demand Trends

The ongoing transition to renewable energy continues to bolster system adequacy, with wind and solar deployment progressing steadily to reduce reliance on conventional generation. This is complemented by favourable hydropower conditions, where reservoirs report higher levels than in preceding years, strengthening the ability to manage seasonal peaks. On the consumption side, electricity demand is projected to remain stable, consistent with previous winter levels and showing no extraordinary increases.

Adequacy Assessment Methodology

The Winter Outlook employs a two-stage, risk-based methodology using probabilistic modelling. The initial market-based scenario assumes standard cross-border exchanges, normal weather, and projected renewable output to identify potential shortages. If risks emerge, the analysis advances to a second stage that incorporates non-market resources, such as strategic reserves and emergency generation, to evaluate system resilience under stress. Key indicators like Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) are used not to predict blackouts, but to flag areas requiring heightened TSO preparedness.

Geopolitical and Interconnection Considerations

ENTSO-E emphasizes the critical importance of operational coordination with Ukraine and Moldova, both of which have been synchronised with the continental grid since March 2022. The ongoing threat to Ukrainian energy infrastructure introduces significant uncertainty, necessitating high levels of monitoring to preserve regional stability. Despite these challenges, TSOs remain committed to pan-European solidarity, progressively increasing export capacities and relying on joint operational planning to manage unforeseen winter stress.

Conclusion

Overall, Europe enters the 2025–2026 winter with a strong adequacy outlook and a robust set of generation, storage, and interconnection resources. Only a small number of regions face elevated risk, and these risks occur primarily under severe or unusual conditions. ENTSO-E’s modelling and the ongoing readiness of TSOs ensure that Europe is well-positioned to respond effectively to potential winter challenges.